Global conflict OSINT (September 12th – September 18th)
Summary
- This week, three separate high profile figures suffered assassination attempts. These are former US President Donald Trump, Comoros President Azali Assoumani, and the President of Yamaha Motors, Yoshihiro Hidaka.
- Russia loses one of their largest ammunition depots in a Ukrainian drone attack.
- Sinaloa continues to devolve into chaos as two factions of the Sinaloa cartel fight one another.
- The founder of PMC Blackwater asks for donations for a possible coup against Venezuela’s Maduro.
- Colombia sustains losses against the ELN.
- A notorious online platform for illegal actions was taken down by Europol.
- Lisbon suffers from a violent knife attack at a school which fortunately resulted in no deaths.
- Israel declares they will expand combat operations against Hezbollah. From airstrikes to two massive cyber-attacks, Israel has thus far delivered on that declaration. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Ansar Allah supposedly used a hypersonic missile to attack Tel Aviv.
- A former Turkish-backed rebel group in Syria joined up with the Levant Front.
- JNIM terrorists captured a military airport in Bamako, Mali while the Fano militia captured the city of Gondar.
- North Korea continues to test their missile technology including the largest caliber MLRS system in the world.
Russo-Ukrainian War
- Incident: On the 17th of September, a Ukrainian drone attack on the 107th GRAU ammunition storage depot near Toropets, Tver region, Russia created a massive explosion likely indicating that most if not all of the depot has been vaporized. The initial explosion was large enough to be picked up on earthquake monitoring equipment that measured the explosion at 2.8 on the Richter scale.
- Threat Level: N/A
- Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Civilians should obey the evacuation orders for the areas near the depot for their own safety due to the likelihood of toxic substances being created by the destroyed depot.
North America
- Incident: By the 14th of September, the intra-cartel war in Sinaloa, Mexico claimed 30 victims as the Mexican military is unable to stop the two factions. The intra-cartel war began as a response to the arrest of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada Garcia back at the end of July as those loyal to El Mayo were challenged by El Chapo’s sons. The fighting has since escalated and is spiralling out of control with the main battleground being Culiacán, the capital of the Mexican state of Sinaloa.
- Threat Level: Medium
- Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Civilians living in Culiacán should take extra precautions when going outside and maintain their distance from cartel skirmishes and military personnel. Cartel attacks may occur without warning anywhere within the city.
Incident: On the 15th of September, another attempted assassination against former President Donald Trump took place at the Mar-A-Lago golf club in Florida. This time around, Secret Service spotted the would-be shooter first and fired on him before the shooter could open fire. As a result, the shooter dropped his SKS and ran for his car only to be pulled over and arrested several miles away on I-95.
Threat Level: Intermediate
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: N/A
Incident: On the 18th of September, three days after the last assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump, the Daily Mail reported that police found explosives in a car near Trump’s rally in Long Island, New York.
Threat Level: Low
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Local law enforcement may need to check all vehicles parked near political rallies to ensure that any hazardous material like explosives are found and handled immediately.
South America
Event: On the 16th of September, the founder of the PMC Blackwater, posted a video asking for donations to finance what is supposedly a paramilitary operation aimed at overthrowing the Maduro regime in Venezuela.
Threat Level: N/A
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: N/A
Incident: On the 17th of September, a terrorist attack by ELN rebels in Puerto Jordán, Arauca, Colombia killed at least three Colombian Army soldiers and wounded another 22.
Threat Level: Intermediate
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Like in the past, FARC successor groups like ELN are likely to target solely military facilities. Civilians should keep their distance from these facilities.
Western Europe
Event: On the 18th of September, a Europol operation dismantled a notorious encrypted communication platform known as ‘Ghost’. The platform was used primarily for enabling large-scale drug trafficking and money laundering operations. So far, 51 suspects have been arrested with more expected in the coming weeks.
Threat Level: N/A
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Law enforcement cyber divisions should monitor users of the Ghost platform, wherever possible, to track down possible successor and alternative platforms.
Southern Europe
Incident: On the 16th of September, armed criminals carried out multiple shooting attacks in the El Torrejón neighborhood of Huelva, Spain. It is unknown if this is connected to last week’s shooting in El Torrejón or is an updated reporting of last week’s shooting.
Threat Level: Low
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Criminal attacks of this nature happen without warning and without specific targets. Civilians should look for local advisories from law enforcement on areas they should avoid travelling to in the El Torrejón neighborhood.
Incident: On the 18th of September, six students were injured in a knife attack at a school near Lisbon, Portugal. The attacker was a 12-year-old boy that went to the same school.
Threat Level: Low
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Knife attacks are best countered by maintaining a safe distance from the armed individual. Anyone not professionally trained in a security background should not attempt to disarm the attacker and let local law enforcement or school guards handle the situation.
Western Asia – Middle East
Incident: On the 14th of September, Israel confirmed they will further expand their combat operations against Hezbollah. The start of this expansion came from an increased volume of airstrikes on what Israeli Intelligence believed were Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon.
Threat Level: Intermediate
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Civilians in Israel should remain sheltered away from the northern Israel-Lebanon border for the duration of the expanded combat operations. Civilians in Lebanon should do the same and evacuate from southern Lebanon for their own safety.
Incident: On the 14th of September, Yemen’s Ansar Allah claimed they used a hypersonic missile to strike the Gezer power plant in Tel Aviv. Israel reported that the missile was intercepted however the central fuel pipes of the power plant were damaged and partially set on fire.
Threat Level: Medium
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Civilians living in areas with a strong IDF or government presence should be prepared to evacuate to air raid shelters at a moment’s notice. The possible usage of hypersonic weapons further increases the margin of error for evacuations as they will strike much sooner than conventional weapons.
Incident: On the 17th of September, Israel launched a mass mixed cyber and intelligence attack on Lebanon that resulted in the deaths of 11 people, of which at least six were known Hezbollah militants, and the wounding of over 4000 others. The attack was carried out by overheating the batteries of pager devices packed with PETN explosive powder resulting in a relatively large explosion. Of the 4000 wounded, the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was among them.
Threat Level: High
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Civilians in Lebanon are urged to dispose or verify the internal integrity of any and all electronic devices purchased in the past 2 years for presence of explosive powder. Furthermore, anyone residing in Lebanon should immediately follow any local advisories for the safe disposal of such devices for their own and others’ safety.
Incident: On the 17th of September, pro-Turkish rebels in Syria rejected Turkey’s normalization of relations with the Assad government. Sukur al-Shamal in particular joined Al-Jabha al-Shamiya (The Levant Front), a group declared a terrorist organization in 2018 by the Netherlands. The Levant Front has since begun moving troops towards Afrin, a city controlled by other Syrian rebel groups supported by Turkey.
Threat Level: Intermediate
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: While fighting has not begun at the time of writing, civilians residing in Azaz or Afrin should be prepared to either hunker down or evacuate in case fighting breaks out between the former Turkish-backed rebel groups.
Incident: On the 18th of September, a second wave of exploding lithium-ion battery powered devices took place across Lebanon. This second attack resulted in only 14 deaths and 450 wounded per Lebanese officials. Unlike the previous attack, cell phones, walkie-talkies, solar panels, and car batteries were targeted. Due to the wide range of devices targeted in this attack, the method utilized by Israel to cause consistent and effective detonations is not known.
Threat Level: High
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Like with the first attack the day before, civilians should dispose or verify the integrity of all electronic devices purchased in the past 2 years. Local advisories remain in place for how to dispose of these devices.
Western Africa
Incident: On the 17th of September, JNIM terrorists captured the military airbase in the city of Bamako, Mali and set fires to multiple planes.
Threat Level: Low
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: N/A
Eastern Africa
Incident: On the 14th of September, Azali Assoumani, the President of Comoros, suffered a slight stab wounded from a knife attack during an assassination attempt by a police officer.
Threat Level: Low
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: N/A
Event: On the 17th of September, the Fano militia from the Amhara region of Ethiopia reportedly captured the city of Gondar. Fano militants posted videos of their troops walking unopposed through the streets as evidence for this claim. [44]
Threat Level: Low
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: N/A
Eastern Asia – Pacific
Event: On the 12th of September, North Korea tested a new 600-mm MLRS platform targeting an uninhabited island in the Sea of Japan. This is the largest caliber MLRS platform in the world at this time.
Threat Level: N/A
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: N/A
Incident: On the 16th of September, the President of Yamaha Motors, Yoshihiro Hidaka, suffered lacerations to his left arm reportedly caused by his 33-year-old daughter, Hana Hidaka. Police are investigating this case as a suspected murder attempt but details have not been provided.
Threat Level: N/A
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: N/A
Sources
Russo-Ukrainian War
[1] https://t.me/BellumActaNews/129439
[2] https://t.me/RWApodcast/2011
[3] https://t.me/intelslava/66741
North America
[4] https://t.me/BellumActaNews/129142
[5] https://t.me/CIG_telegram/52289
[6] https://t.me/CIG_telegram/52302
[7] https://t.me/readovkaworld/12220
[8] https://t.me/meriblood/3601
[9] https://t.me/meriblood/3615
[10] https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/122978
[11] https://t.me/BellumActaNews/129238
[12] https://t.me/readovkaworld/12222
[13] https://t.me/rnintel/15194
South America
[14] https://t.me/tupireport/19332
[15] https://t.me/VenezuelaNetwork/12789
[16] https://t.me/tupireport/19342
[17] https://t.me/war_noir/17731
Western Europe
[18] https://t.me/readovkaworld/12238
Southern Europe
[19] https://t.me/war_noir/17689
[20] https://t.me/BellumActaNews/129539
Western Asia – Middle East
[21] https://t.me/kavkazdaily/1663
[22] https://t.me/BellumActaNews/129173
[23] https://t.me/BellumActaNews/129174
[24] https://t.me/BellumActaNews/129184
[25] https://t.me/intelslava/66518
[26] https://t.me/BellumActaNews/129546
[27] https://t.me/azmedia01/12280
[28] https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/122915
[29] https://t.me/PalestineResist/57465
[30] https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/122945
[31] https://t.me/azmedia01/13462
[32] https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/123212
[33] https://t.me/BellumActaNews/129391
[34] https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/123241
[35] https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/123253
[36] https://t.me/BellumActaNews/129452
[37] https://t.me/BellumActaNews/129454
[38] https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/123305
[39] https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/123312
[40] https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/123317
[41] https://t.me/azmedia01/14254
Western Africa
[42] https://t.me/war_noir/17705
Eastern Africa
[43] https://t.me/rnintel/14743
[44] https://t.me/CIG_telegram/52466
Eastern Asia – Pacific
[45] https://t.me/intelslava/66404
[46] https://t.me/BellumActaNews/129332
Predictions/Op-Ed
The Likelihood of a Third Lebanon War
We witnessed one of the largest offensive intelligence operations in history this week. Mossad carried out a mass destruction campaign that has likely affected hundreds of militants tied to Hezbollah both in Lebanon and Syria. The question this brings up is whether or not this was part of Israel’s declaration that they’ll expand combat operations against Hezbollah.
To some that may be an easy question to answer while others may ponder that that this was planned well before the declaration and isn’t tied to it. The more important point, however, is one that wasn’t brought up in the general roundup this week. Israel has been moving heavy equipment and brigades to the northern border throughout the week, amassing a force likely around the same size as the force that initially went into Gaza months ago. Putting two and two together here, the better question to ask is what level of combat operations is Israel looking to achieve between the airstrikes, mass mobilization of hardware, and the intelligence operation? Israeli news media suggests, primarily, that this may be the start or foundation of the Third Lebanon War.
As the war hasn’t been declared yet, at least at the time of writing, is the war inevitable? The answer to that question, in my view, will entirely depend on what Hezbollah’s response will be to the pager attack. The Lebanese Foreign Minister has already said, in an unprecedented statement, that “no one can calm down Hezbollah now,” meaning there will be a retaliation and, unlike Iran, is very likely to happen in the immediate future. We very well may be witnessing the start of the Third Lebanon War unfold slowly but surely over the coming days or weeks.