Weekly Global Conflict OSINT Report
October 17th – October 23rd
Summary
- In South America, the conflict between militias, gangs, and police continues in Rio de Janeiro. Meanwhile in Chile, a group of students were badly injured while preparing illegal incendiary devices.
- In the same week, Yahya Sinwar was killed in Gaza while Hashem Safieddine was confirmed killed three weeks ago, both dealing a significant blow to Hamas and Hezbollah respectively. Furthermore, Israel launched a new large-scale bombing campaign against the Al-Qard Al-Hassan bank in Lebanon.
- Turkey suffered a terrorist attack believed to have been carried out the Kurdish PKK terrorist group.
- M23 rebels in Congo captured another town in the eastern parts of the country.
- An attempted attack on the Japanese Liberal-Democratic Party was foiled.
South America
Incident: On the 20th of October, anti-drug trafficking militias took over the Muzema favela in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil following a police operation against the Red Command drug trafficking gang in various parts of city.
Threat Level: Low
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: While those living in the favelas of Rio are very much aware of what they should do, those traveling through the area are advised to remain calm and avoid any groups of armed or suspicious looking people. Most militias in these areas may ask for money as a form of extortion but will generally avoid interacting with the average civilian.
Incident: On the 23rd of October, a group of at least 35 students at the Internado Nacional Barros Arana (INBA) in Santiago, Chile were badly burned after an explosion occurred in the room where the students were preparing Molotov cocktails for planned protests.
Threat Level: N/A
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Students and protesters shouldn’t handle flammable or explosive products for their own safety.
Western Asia – Middle East – Israel-Lebanon Conflict
Incident: On the 17th of October, the leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, was killed in a short skirmish with IDF soldiers in the Tel Sultan area of Rafah. Israeli sources stated the skirmish was a coincidence, not an intelligence-based operation.
Threat Level: N/A
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: N/A
Incident: On the 18th of October, a Hezbollah suicide drone managed to penetrate Israeli air defenses and hit Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s personal residence in Caesarea. Netanyahu was not injured in the attack and the residence received only moderate damage to a small portion of it.
Threat Level: Intermediate
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: While this assassination attempt was unsuccessful, it demonstrated that an efficient anti-drone defense system is required for current and future conflicts.
Incident: On the 20th of October, Israel began a large bombing operation against the Al-Qard Al-Hassan bank and its branches across Lebanon. At least eight different warnings were issued for dozens of districts and cities across Lebanon minutes before the bombing began. Israel claimed that Al-Qard Al-Hassan finances Hezbollah and works directly with Iran.
Threat Level: Medium
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Like with all large bombing campaigns, civilians in the warning areas should leave immediately for their own safety.
Incident: On the 22nd of October, the body of Hashem Safieddine, the cousin of Hassan Nasrallah, was recovered from the rubble of a building in the Dahiyeh district of Beirut, Lebanon. While not officially confirmed by Hezbollah to be Nasrallah’s replacement, Safieddine was widely believed to be the new Secretary-General of Hezbollah. He had been missing since a series of Israeli strikes on the 4th of October.
Threat Level: N/A
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: N/A
Incident: On the 23rd of October, Turkey suffered a terrorist bombing and shooting attack at the Turkish Aerospace Industries headquarters in Ankara. The attack left three dead and 14 wounded; two of the terrorists were neutralized. The Kurdish PKK is believed to be behind this attack.
Threat Level: Medium
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: The facility staff performed admirably blockading themselves away from the terrorists and awaiting the eventual security response. Tragically, very little could’ve prevented the losses of this day due to the sudden nature of the attack.
Central Africa
Incident: On the 21st of October, M23 rebels seized the town of Kalembe in eastern Congo after sitting just 10 kilometers away from the town for the past 8 months.
Threat Level: Intermediate
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Civilians in the eastern region of Congo should evacuate areas controlled or near M23 rebel positions.
Eastern Asia – Pacific
Incident: On the 18th of October, a man was quickly arrested for throwing a Molotov cocktail at the Liberal-Democratic Party’s central headquarters in Tokyo, Japan before attempting to ram the Prime Minister’s office with a car.
Threat Level: Low
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: N/A
Sources
South America
[1] https://t.me/tupireport/19595
[2] https://t.me/tupireport/19597
[3] https://t.me/tupireport/19639 [GRAPHIC]
[4] https://t.me/tupireport/19646 [GRAPHIC]
Western Asia – Middle East – Israel-Lebanon Conflict
[5] https://t.me/BellumActaNews/132069 [GRAPHIC]
[6] https://t.me/intelslava/68514 [GRAPHIC]
[7] https://t.me/GeoPWatch/7610 [GRAPHIC]
[8] https://t.me/readovkaworld/12407
[9] https://t.me/intelslava/68577
[10] https://t.me/readovkaworld/12414
[11] https://t.me/warmonitors/29755
[12] https://t.me/BellumActaNews/132250
[13] https://t.me/tglobaleye/4277
[14] https://t.me/LebUpdate/45852
[15] https://t.me/swodki/431860
[16] https://t.me/BellumActaNews/132363
[17] https://t.me/readovkaworld/12428
[18] https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/127547
[19] https://t.me/YTHBR/23409
[20] https://t.me/war_noir/18221
[21] https://t.me/BellumActaNews/132400
[22] https://t.me/YTHBR/23442
Central Africa
[23] https://t.me/africaintel/11219
Eastern Asia – Pacific
[24] https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/127055